UFC 317 Predictions: Preview of the Headliner and Full Main Card Picks
June 27th, 2025, 2:02 PM ET
Written by Danny Varano
UFC 317 Main Card this Saturday, June 28th at 10:00 PM ET
All odds provided by ESPN Bet
Main Event: Ilia “El Matador” Topuria (-450 favorite) vs. Charles “Do Bronxs” Oliveira (+325 underdog)
On Saturday night, two top talents battle for the vacant lightweight title in the International Fight Week headliner. Former featherweight champion, Ilia Topuria, jumps up a weight class in an attempt to become just the tenth fighter in UFC history to secure belts in multiple divisions. Standing in his way is a fan-favorite contender, and no stranger to the lightweight throne, Charles Oliveira.
Technical Overview: The bout projects to be a stylistically clash as both competitors will direct the fight towards their differing strengths. Through eight fights in the UFC, Topuria has proven to be versed in all facets of mixed martial arts. Despite his expansive skill set, the Spanish-Georgian champ will certainly rely primarily on his boxing prowess, and elite hand speed and lethal power. Adversely, Oliveira, one of the most accomplished Brazilian jiu-jitsu artists to ever walk into the octagon, should seek to test Topuria on the ground.
Oftentimes, past fights are the best tools for predicting future outcomes. When evaluating how El Matador will fare against the BJJ specialty of Oliveira, it is most practical to refer back to his bouts with proficient grapplers, Byrce Mitchell and Ryan Hall. In both cases, Topuria neutralized his opponent’s threatening ground games with his own black-belt-level jiu-jitsu and background in Greco-Roman wrestling. He then overwhelmed Hall and Mitchell with his slick boxing and knockout potential. Before the concluding bell of round one, Hall was already asleep. Mitchell, on the other hand, was submitted by Topuria after being battered on the feet.
Conversely, the veteran Oliveira has also succeeded against fighters with paralleling styles to Topuria. Most notably, Do Bronxs stopped lightweight legend and skillful boxer, Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier, at UFC 269. In their bout, rather than remaining at a distance, Oliveira walked straight towards Poirier’s striking attack. He would pay the price by enduring a few heavy blows, yet eventually managed to find his competitor’s back and executed a rear-naked choke.
The crystal balls of many MMA pundits seem to indicate that if Oliveira presses forward with Topuria, he will most likely stumble into a knockout collision. However, the calculated approach of circling and steadily peppering Topuria with jabs has yielded no fruit for El Matador’s previous challengers. Both Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski were persistent in fighting on the outside with Topuria, but eventually the Spanish-Georgian phenom closed the gap and landed devastating combinations.
Perhaps the only way to defeat Topuria is by inviting him into a dog fight. If Do Bronxs can prevent El Matador from settling into his familiar stalking rhythm, it could result in some headaches (both mental and physical) for the former featherweight.
Key Advantages and Weapons: One indicator to observe whenever a fighter ascends divisions is a potential size discrepancy. When the cage closes on Saturday night, Oliveira will be the noticeably bigger man. He stands three inches taller and will benefit from a five-inch reach advantage. As the lengthier fighter, expect Do Bronxs to deliver some front kicks and straight knees when Topuria enters the pocket. Additionally, Oliveira may wield some high kicks, which Jai Herbert effectively employed to stun El Matador.
A key weapon for the opposing corner will be Topuria’s calf kicks. El Matador has repetitively punished the lead leg of his last several foes, forcing them to switch stances. As Topuria explained himself on the UFC 317 Countdown, he masterfully times his punches to when his opponents open up their middle line to transition from orthodox to southpaw, or vice versa. Other essential tactics will include a plethora of body punches, which Topuria tends to throw, especially against taller competitors. His training videos have also revealed him practicing a spinning back kick, which could also be on display this weekend.
Final Prediction: All eyes will be glued to the TV screen for this bout between two immensely captivating fighters. However, only one man’s hand will be raised. Although it will be his toughest trial to date, Topuria’s power is just too dangerous, particularly with a minimized weight cut. El Matador will pad his perfect record, and strut out of the octagon with gold straps over both shoulders. Underground Pick: Topuria wins by KO/TKO
Co-Main Event – UFC Flyweight Title: Alexandre Pantoja (-250 favorite) vs. Kai Kara-France (+200 underdog)
Brief Overview: Nine years after their matchup on Season 24 of The Ultimate Fighter, Alexandre Pantoja and Kai Kara-France will duel it out once again under the bright lights of a championship fight. Pantoja, the current flyweight champion, seeks to add another victory over Kara-France and retain his flyweight title for the fourth consecutive time. Riding the momentum of a first round knockout over Steve Erceg at UFC 305, KKF hopes to leverage his power to strike revenge.
As for predictions, Pantoja’s iron chin will weather a storm of punches from the powerful hands of Kara-France. Yet, the reigning champ still controls the majority of this fight on the ground. This one goes the distance. Underground Pick: Pantoja wins by unanimous decision
Remaining Main Card Picks:
Flyweight Fight: Brandon Royval (EVEN) vs. Joshua Van (-120 favorite) Underground Pick: Van wins by unanimous decision
Lightweight Fight: Beneil Dariush (-110) vs. Renato Mociano (-110) Underground Pick: Moicano wins by submission
Bantamweight Fight: Payton Talbott (+155 underdog) vs. Felipe Lima (-185 favorite) Underground Pick: Talbott wins by TKO/KO