UFC 323 Main Card is Live Tonight at 10:00 PM ET
All odds provided by DraftKings and UFC
(Main card picks listed at the bottom of the article)
In addition to the party hats and noisemakers, pack a box of tissues as the weekend projects to be a bittersweet affair. The leader in combat sports prepares to say farewell to ESPN+ and the old pay-per-view model tonight at UFC 323, the final numbered event of the year. With a double course of championship fights and a slew of intriguing matchups as appetizers, the UFC will surely wave goodbye in classy fashion.
For Saturday night’s headliner, the Machine is back. Once again, bantamweight champion Merab “The Machine” Dvalishvili intends to shatter records. A victory over familiar foe and steady contender, Petr “No Mercy” Yan, secures Dvalishvili the accolade of the most title defenses in a single year (4). Yet, in the rival corner, Yan will be charging on the sweet fuel of vengeance from a unanimous decision loss to the Machine in 2023.
An alluring co-main title showdown in the promotion’s lightest male division contains echoes of the central display. Flyweight king Alexandre Pantoja will also seek to extend a lengthy tenure as champion, defending his belt for the fifth time against a very youthful and electrifying Joshua Van (scroll to bottom for the Club Underground pick).
Main Event Preview
Apart from a few choice words at the UFC 323 pre-fight press conference, the championship main event has yielded little extracurricular clashes for TMZ reporters. However, inside the octagon, a collision of styles will certainly persist. On paper, the rematch between Dvalishvili and Yan presents two fighters with conflicting expertise.
The champ has claimed and maintained his throne through relentless wrestling and inexhaustible cardio. Currently coasting on a fourteen fight win streak, Dvalishvili has repeatedly dismantled opponents primarily by outworking them. Fully embodying his moniker, the Machine fights at a rapid pace. His pressuring advances never cease, as his competitors are constantly forced to remain defensive.
Opposingly, Petr Yan, a former bantamweight titleholder himself, has forged his success in the UFC through boxing mastery. Unlike the chaotic onslaughts of his Georgian rival, Yan prefers to settle into a slower, rather calculated groove.
Often, the Russian fighter utilizes the early rounds to patiently download and read the tendencies of his adversary. Once Yan has garnered sufficient data, he begins to systematically dissect his prey with counter-strikes and slick combinations. He possesses exceptionally quick hand-speed and legit knockout power. The former champ typically improves exponentially throughout his battles, as the more time he has to analyze his opponent’s movement, the better he performs.
In March 2023, in the precursor tonight’s sequel bout, the polar forms would intersect for the first time. Merab’s inexorable tactics proved to be superior. Despite being the lesser striker, the Machine overwhelmed Yan on the feet. His constant pressure and volume of strikes denied Yan the luxury of studying his opposition in real time.
Additionally, although the Russian fighter defended approximately 80% of takedown attempts, Dvalishvili initiated his wrestling 49 times. As a result of the sheer quantity of attacks, Yan never found a comfortable rhythm. The judges awarded Merab each of the five rounds in the inaugural meeting.
Indeed, the uncompetitive outcome of the prequel indicates that Dvalishvili will likely secure an additional title defense at UFC 323. However, there are a few encouraging factors for Petr Yan fans.
One determinant is the potential overactivity of the champion. Dvalishvili will be cutting pounds for a fourth time in 2025, two of which in a two month span. Weight descents are extremely taxing and occasionally hamper cardio. The toll on the body could compromise the Georgian’s defining feature. Sometimes even the finest machinery overheats.
Furthermore, the initial brawl was set in the Theater in Virgin Hotels, a venue which contains a slightly smaller octagon. The rather claustrophobic cage enhanced the ploys of Dvalishvili. He drove his competitor back to the fence with ease. Any additional surface area on canvas tonight tips a slight advantage to Yan, who capitalizes on dead space in his striking.
Keys to the Fight
For Dvalishvili, attaining a second victory over Yan boils down to replication. If the Machine is able to match the energy and output of his first performance, he will likely emerge triumphant.
A key weapon which the Georgian champ effectively employed in the prequel bout, and should certainly return to in the sequel, is low calf kicks. As a crafty boxer, Petr Yan relies heavily upon his footwork and elusivity. He is very skilled in alternating between southpaw and orthodox. The Russian is most lethal when fighting from both stances.
Yet, when Merab clobbered his lead orthodox leg with low kicks, Yan responded by remaining in southpaw. Not only was the boxer’s movement compromised, but his array of potential attacks was reduced.
Alternatively, more drastic adjustments must be adapted for Yan. Despite running contradictory to his familiar approach, it may be wise for the former champion to begin the fight as an initiator.
Having already danced with Dvalishvili for 25 minutes, perhaps he has obtained enough knowledge to walk into the cage with stored combinations. Moreover, if Merab responds to pressure with aggressive barrages of his own, Yan will be in a better position to counter.
As it pertains to particular tactics, Yan should invest substantially in shots to the body. By wielding kicks and landing combinations to the abdomen, the Machine’s motor could begin to dwindle. Dvalishvili has an exceptional knack for weaponizing his cardio, thus Yan must capitalize on any opportunity to abate the Georgian’s endurance.
Additionally, expect the Russian brawler to experiment with spinning assaults. In his fight with Cory Sandhagen, spinning back fists and kicks bore fruit for Yan. Thus, perhaps he could surprise Merab with orbiting weapons.
Official Main Event Prediction
Now for the mystical part of the program…it’s prediction time!
Everyone loves an underdog, but, on this occasion, the canine does not display enough bite. Although the sequel match between Dvalishvili and Yan will be comparatively more competitive, the Machine overpowers his Russian foe. A myriad of strikes and takedowns will simply be too much to combat.
Merab Dvalishvili etches his sixteen letter name into the UFC history books once again, as he becomes the only fighter to realize four title defenses in a single year.
Underground Pick: Dvalishvili wins by unanimous decision.
Complete List of Main Card Picks:
Bantamweight Title Fight: Merab Dvalishvili (-485 favorite) vs Petr Yan (+370 underdog) – Underground Pick: Winner – Merab Dvalishvili
Flyweight Title Fight: Alexandre Pantoja (-238) vs. Joshua Van (+195) – Underground Pick: Winner – Alexandre Pantoja
Flyweight Fight: Brandon Moreno (-102) vs. Tatsuro Taira (-118) – Underground Pick: Winner – Tatsuro Taira
Bantamweight Fight: Henry Cejudo (+230) vs. Payton Talbott (-285) – Underground Pick: Winner – Payton Talbott
Light Heavyweight Fight: Jan Blachowicz (-120) vs. Bogdan Guskov (+100) – Underground Pick: Winner – Bogdan Guskov
Subscribe for updates every time we post!
Leave a Reply